On Shifting Ground

We're entering the final days of the 2024 presidential election, but a lot can change in a few weeks. Historically, several presidential contests have been upended in October. Coined the "October Surprise," for decades candidates have been tested at the finish line... and many have faltered. In 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump was trailing in the polls in October – as he is now with Kamala Harris – so could a last-second surprise ensure victory for Trump? Join us at Commonwealth Club - World Affairs on Tuesday, October 15th at Noon, for a special conversation with political strategist and pollster Rachel Bitecofer, Jonathan M. Metzl, author of Dying of Whiteness: How the Politics of Racial Resentment is Killing America's Heartland, and Tara Setmayer, co-founder and CEO of the Seneca Project.

Monday, October 7, 2024 marks the first anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israeli territory. For a while, Israel's response to the violence supplanted the war in Ukraine in the headlines, but as the months dragged on, attention had largely turned away from Gaza. That all changed in late-September when Israeli airstrikes in neighboring Lebanon killed seven high-ranking commanders and officials from Hezbollah, including the militant group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Ray Suarez speaks with Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, about how Nasrallah’s has already escalated violence in the region… and may drag in Iran and the United States. Then, Vox’s Zack Beauchamp on what the first anniversary of October 7th will mean to Israel, the United States, and the final months of Joe Biden’s presidency. Guests: Zack Beauchamp, Senior Correspondent at Vox Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

After the two recent assassination attempts on former president Donald Trump, it’s clear the United States has a problem with political violence. But in our history, several would-be assassins have attacked sitting presidents, so is there something different about these Trump shooters… and this era of political grievance? Bruce Hoffman, Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security at the Council on Foreign Relations, on whether we can break the string of political violence across the globe. Guest: Bruce Hoffman, Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security, Council on Foreign Relations Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

The recent assassination attempts on former president Donald Trump were surreal for many. It's been almost a half-century since a US president was shot, but attacks on a sitting president aren’t new – Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan survived assassination attempts. What’s different is that violence on elected officials used to be carried out by individuals with coherent political aims. In a recent article for The Atlantic, Tom Nichols argues that Donald Trump hasn’t carried himself like Gerald Ford, and speaks with Ray Suarez about why Trump is trying to use these assassination attempts for his political advantage. Guests: Tom Nichols, staff writer at The Atlantic and professor emeritus of national-security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College Host:  Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Kamala Harris holds a national lead of three points over Donald Trump. And as the polls following her recent debate performance continue to trickle in, her lead is expected to grow. But can we trust the latest polls? This week, in our latest special election series, we talk with an undecided voter who doesn’t trust what polls are saying. Then, a pair of political scientists break down how we can make polling better. We’ll hear from Samaya Garza, J.D. Candidate at University of Detroit Mercy School of Law, Dr. Peter Francia, professor and director of the ECU Center for Survey Research, Justin Grimmer, political science professor and senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, and Dr. Natalie Jackson, vice president at GQR. Guests: Samaya Garza, J.D. Candidate at University of Detroit Mercy School of Law Dr. Peter Francia, professor and director of the ECU Center for Survey Research Justin Grimmer, political science professor and senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution Dr. Natalie Jackson, vice president at GQR Host: Ray Suarez Mateo Schimpf, senior producer If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Anne Applebaum argues that autocracy is spreading to democratic states, and the reason why is that illiberalism is good international business. She warns the seeds of autocracy have already been sown in the United States, so how can we protect ourselves during another contentious presidential election season? Ray Suarez sits down with Anne Applebaum. Her latest book is Autocracy, Inc., and she has a new podcast, Autocracy in America. It’s co-hosted by British journalist Peter Pomerantsev. Do listen. Guest: Anne Applebaum, staff writer for The Atlantic and pulitzer-prize winning historian Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

In August, Ukrainian troops swept into Russia's Kursk region, and seized over 500 square miles of Russian territory. It’s the first time that Russia has been invaded since World War II. In Moscow, President Putin has relied on aid from China, Iran, and North Korea, but some analysts believe that his most consequential support may come from a second Trump term. They argue the Russian leader is biding his time till the 2024 US Presidential election. Meanwhile, President Zelensky is still waiting on answers from current US President Joe Biden on the use of long-range missiles on Russian targets. Can the Ukrainian military hold its ground until the November election, and what does President Zelensky need to secure a victory? The Guardian's Luke Harding joins Ray Suarez to share what he’s seeing on the battlefield. Guest: Luke Harding, foreign correspondent for The Guardian Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Immigrants to America have always faced resistance, and have always—over time—assimilated and become vital parts of America. But in a political era of “America First'', what does it mean to be an immigrant in the 21st century? And who decides who is “American” enough? Ray Suarez has criss-crossed the country to speak to new Americans from all corners of the globe, and to record their stories for his new book. He shares what he learned while reporting and writing We Are Home: Becoming American in the 21st Century, with veteran journalist Shereen Marisol Meraji. Learn more about Shereen’s new podcast, How I Get It Done. Guest: Ray Suarez, host, On Shifting Ground Host: Shereen Marisol Meraji, assistant professor at UC Berkeley’s School of Journalism If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

In May, Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer, presented a sprawling “road map” for regulating artificial intelligence. But tech experts have called the plan “pathetic”, and many critics believe Washington is out of touch. And California’s legislature will soon vote on a plan that would put guardrails on the biggest AI players. This week, we're airing our special election episode from June about why AI may be the big bad “X Factor” of the upcoming presidential election. First, we’ll hear from Josh Lawson, Director of AI and Democracy at the Aspen Institute. Then, US Congressman Ted Lieu and Dr. Gary Marcus, Founder of Robust AI and Geometric AI, join Ray Suarez to talk about the future of AI, and whether it can be regulated in time. Guests: Josh Lawson, Director of AI and Democracy at the Aspen Institute US Representative Ted Lieu (D-CA 36th District) Dr. Gary Marcus, Founder of Robust AI and Geometric AI Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Earlier this century, reports indicated a little alcohol might even improve health. Moderation was the watchword. Those reports have been overtaken by a new generation of research which indicates the healthy amount of alcohol is no alcohol. But alcoholic beverages are deeply embedded in the brain. So if it’s so bad for us, why can’t we quit drinking? Ray speaks with New York Times health reporter Roni Rabin about a new UK study that concludes that drinking is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, regardless of underlying health and socioeconomic status. Guest: Roni Rabin, health reporter, The New York Times Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

For the most part, the world has gone back to normal. We’re getting on planes… going to concerts… but many Americans haven’t changed their pandemic drinking habits. And this increased consumption trend is especially high for older Americans. In 2020, alcohol accounted for more than 11,000 deaths among those 65 and up – that’s an 18 percent increase from the previous year – and many of those cases went untreated. Ray speaks with Keith Humphreys, Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University, to get to the bottom of why Baby Boomers are drinking so much. Guest: Keith Humphreys, Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race on July 21, and in the few weeks since, Vice President Kamala Harris has garnered enough delegates to become the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party. Biden had trailed Trump in virtually every poll, but Harris has rallied the hopes of her party, as her momentum continues to upend the race. This week, in our latest special election series, why party conventions matter, what to expect at the 2024 Democratic National Convention, and how The Lincoln Project and Kamala Harris are taunting Trump. Stuart Stevens, former chief Republican strategist and author of Conspiracy to End America, joins Ray Suarez to discuss the state of the presidential race, and to make predictions for the final 75 days. Guests: Stuart Stevens, Senior Advisor, The Lincoln Project Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Ecuadorian journalist Jorge Imbaquingo says that his country used to be, “an island of peace.” But now it’s caught in the middle of Latin America’s bloodiest drug war. In our last episode, we heard about Ecuador’s historic vote to stop oil extraction in the Amazon. Today, we’ll hear about why its President, Daniel Noboa, nixed those plans to fund his war against the country’s drug cartels. First, producer Mateo Schimpf and El Diario del Comercio reporter Jorge Imbaquingo share why Ecuador has become a target for Latin America’s drug cartels. Then writer Jon Lee Anderson talks with Ray Suarez about his recent New Yorker profile of Daniel Noboa, and why the young leader is standing up to the narcos. Guests: Jorge Imbaquingo, politics reporter, El Diario del Comercio Jon Lee Anderson, staff writer, The New Yorker Mateo Schimpf, producer, On Shifting Ground Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Last August, Ecuador passed a historic referendum that was more than a decade in the making. Oil accounts for roughly a third of the country’s exports, but Ecuadorians voted to stop extraction at a major production site deep in the Amazon. Since the vote, Ecuador’s “Keep It in the Ground” movement has hit some speed bumps. In collaboration with our sister program, Climate One, why curbing climate emissions has economic consequences for rural Ecuadorians. Guests: Kevin Koenig, Climate, Energy, and Extractive Industry Director, Amazon Watch Kimberley Brown, freelance journalist Mateo Schimpf, producer, On Shifting Ground Host: Ray Suarez  Ariana Brocious, co-host, Climate One If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Ray Suarez sits down with Dr. Timothy Naftali, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s SIPA, to examine Biden’s foreign policy legacy… and how country's around the world are preparing for a new US President in 2025. Guest: Dr. Timothy Naftali, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s SIPA Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

A few weeks ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke before the US Congress, and he showed no signal that his government is open to a ceasefire with Hamas. President Biden had hoped to broker an Israeli-Hamas peace deal before leaving office, but an attack from Hezbollah in the Golan Heights—and Israel's military response—could dash any remaining hope for a deal in Gaza. Ray Suarez sits down with Mairav Zonszein, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, to Israel’s military may be at odds with Netanyahu and why the Israeli Prime Minister is going all-in on a Trump Presidency. Guest: Mairav Zonszein, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Donald Trump’s anti-establishment message has galvanized tech leaders across the US, including in former Democratic Party stronghold, Silicon Valley. In the second half of our election special, we’ll hear from This American Life’s Zoe Chace about what happened when Michigan Republicans took his advice and actually tried to buck the system. Then, WIRED’s Steven Levy joins Ray Suarez to talk about why big tech and “little tech” are throwing their weight behind Trump’s presidential bid. You can hear Zoe's latest reporting from the Republican National Convention on This American Life. Guests: Zoe Chace, Producer, This American Life Steven Levy, Journalist and Editor, WIRED Mateo Schimpf, Producer, On Shifting Ground Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help.

Since Joe Biden dropped out of the race, Vice President Kamala Harris raised hundreds of millions in small dollar donations. Harris has received endorsements from virtually every major Democratic Party leader, and her path to nomination – and command of the dnc campaign war chest – appears inevitable. But was it the big money DNC donors who really made this possible? The New York Times’ Astead Herndon joins Ray Suarez to talk about how Democratic Party donors helped force President Biden out. Guests: Astead Herndon, National Politics Reporter, The New York Times Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

The surprising success of Russian athletes at the 2014 Sochi Olympics gave Vladimir Putin the political capital to invade Crimea, and it was all built on an elaborate state-sponsored doping program. Russia received little more than a slap on the wrist by the International Olympic Committee, so President Putin was emboldened to attack Ukraine in 2022. This time the IOC had to act, and the majority of Russian athletes have been banned from the 2024 Paris Games. John Hoberman, Olympic Historian and Professor of Germanic Studies, University of Texas at Austin, joins Ray Suarez to share why the IOC has a history of enabling authoritarian leaders, and why it has blood on its hands. Guest: John Hoberman, Olympic Historian and Professor of Germanic Studies, University of Texas, Austin Host: Ray Suarez, host, On Shifting Ground If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

It's been a wild few weeks in US news... but remember the Olympics? After COVID-19 threw a curveball in Tokyo, the Olympic Games are back. Since the Olympics as we know them started in 1896, they have only been canceled for drastic events like World Wars and a pandemic. The 2020 Tokyo games were postponed a year due to lockdown restrictions, and global viewership suffered. So will the 2024 Paris games rekindle our love for the Games? The Athletic sports writer, Richard Deitsch, joins Ray Suarez to talk about whether the Olympics can rebound. Guests: Richard Deitsch, sports writer and host, Sports Media with Richard Deitsch Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.